Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam: The annual H2 2019 Global Research Briefing

Hanoi, 26 September 2019 - Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam on 23 September 2019 organized the annual H2 2019 Global Research Briefing in Ho Chi Minh city, drawing 150 senior leaders from local and foreign businesses in energetic discussions on trade tensions and the likely implications for rates and FX markets through to 2020, as well as cutting-edge insights on the latest technology trends.

Standard Chartered’s speakers at the event include Edward Lee, Chief Economist, ASEAN and South Asia, Divya Devesh, Head of ASEAN and South Asia FX Research and Maxime De Guillebon, Member of SC Ventures, a platform and a catalyst for Standard Chartered to promote innovation, invest in disruptive financial technology and explore alternative business models.

Torry Berntsen, Standard Chartered’s CEO and Regional Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking, Americas gave opening remarks, speaking about the Bank’s operations in the Americas and its strength in supporting trade with Vietnam. Berntsen was in Vietnam as the first stop of an ASEAN tour to visit key markets and clients to ensure Standard Chartered is well positioned to support them in driving commerce and prosperity.

Edward kicked off the event by sharing his view on the latest global, regional and local outlook. He forecast a moderate global growth of 3.4% in 2019, noting the three broad factors determining headwinds or tailwinds for global growth including US trade tensions with major partners, the policy outlook for major central banks, and oil prices. All three factors affect sentiment and economic activity, both investment and consumption. Edward, however, is bullish about Vietnam’s outlook, which he believes will be an ASEAN outperformer in 2019 with GDP growth projected at 6.9% and the rate is expected to sustain through 2021.  He saw the recent broad-based 25bps rate cut rate cut by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) – the first since July 2017 – as pre-emptive signaling, given Vietnam’s dependence on global demand to support its export-driven growth. The near-term impact on credit growth and borrowing costs is likely to be minimal; domestic liquidity is flush and overnight borrowing costs are close to yearly lows. The economist does not expect further monetary policy action from the SBV for the rest of 2019.

Divya discussed the outlook for foreign exchange and interest rate markets globally. Trade tensions are dominating market attention, and lower inflation outcomes are enabling major central banks to respond. He highlighted the aggressive monetary policy easing by global central banks are likely to keep interest rates at subdued levels. Divya also focused on the impact of trade wars on Asia FX, with specific focus on the CNY and the VND.

In his welcome remarks, Nirukt Sapru, CEO Vietnam and ASEAN and South Asia Cluster Markets, Standard Chartered Bank, said: “Slowing growth, lower-than-expected inflation and rising downside risks have caused central banks around the world to turn increasingly accommodative. There are also some geo-political risks to watch for.  Everyone is aware of the US-China Trade disputes and these are already affecting the global economy.  Additionally, the recent tensions in the middle east involving Saudi Arabia and Iran have been rising recently. Things look brighter in Asia, which we expect to lead global growth in the near future.  All in all, it seems likely to be another positive year for Vietnam, so long as some key risks stay well-managed.” 

Following the economic briefings, Maxime De Guillebon, Member of SC Ventures, delivered a presentation on “Disruptive technologies: is the bet paying off? A closer look at the Blockchain use case”, sharing the Bank’s latest insights on technological trends.

The event is part of the 2019 Standard Chartered Global Research Briefing series, which is organized by the Bank in major ASEAN cities to provide its clients in-depth insight and analysis on global, regional and local socio-economic trends that will have an impact on international business and trade in the year ahead.

Le Hien